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technological singularity
The technological singularity is a hypothetical event related to the advent of genuine artificial general intelligence (also known as "strong AI"). Such a computer, computer network, or robot would theoretically be capable of recursive self-improvement (redesigning itself), or of designing and building computers or robots better than itself on its own. Repetitions of this cycle would likely result in a runaway effect – an intelligence explosion〔(David Chalmers on Singularity, Intelligence Explosion ). April 8th, 2010. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. 〕〔(Editor's Blog Why an Intelligence Explosion is Probable ), by Richard Loosemore and Ben Goertzel. March 7, 2011; hplusmagazine.〕 – where smart machines design successive generations of increasingly powerful machines, creating intelligence far exceeding human intellectual capacity and control. Because the capabilities of such a superintelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is the point beyond which events may become unpredictable or even unfathomable to human intelligence.
The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was made by Stanislaw Ulam in his 1958 obituary for John von Neumann, in which he mentioned a conversation with von Neumann about the "ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".〔 The term was popularized by mathematician, computer scientist and science fiction author Vernor Vinge, who argues that artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain–computer interfaces could be possible causes of the singularity. Futurist Ray Kurzweil cited von Neumann's use of the term in a foreword to von Neumann's classic ''The Computer and the Brain''.
Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045〔 whereas Vinge predicts some time before 2030.〔 In 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala published a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by both experts and non-experts and found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040. Discussing the level of uncertainty in AGI estimates, Armstrong stated at the 2012 Singularity Summit: "It's not fully formalized, but my current 80% estimate is something like five to 100 years."〔
==Manifestations==
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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